THIS TOURISM WEEK Number 45 - Monday, 17 July 2006

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First Four Months of 2006: World Tourism Up

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PROUDLY BAREFOOT AND FULLY SOUTH AFRICAN

The world recorded 236 million international tourist arrivals in the first four months of 2006 - some 10 million (or 4.5%) more than during the first four months of 2005 - and Africa and the Middle East lead the way.

That’s the word from the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).

In a media release dated 28 June 2006, the Organisation said that this reflected “the sustained growth in global tourism demand started in 2004.”

Importantly for us, especially in light of recent figures which show that overseas tourism to South Africa has increased only marginally, Africa and the Middle East both posted an estimated 11% increase over 2005 - against an 8% growth in Asia and the Pacific, 2.7% in the Americas and 2.5% in Europe.

In Europe (which is historically affected more by Easter trade than other regions), performance in the individual destinations was quite varied - with Finland posting a 15% increase over last year and France down by 0.2%. And, as if it were necessary to prove the importance of events-based tourism, Austrian figures for April increased by 45% over last year because of the 250th celebration of Mozart’s birth. Interestingly, bearing in mind what we’ve seen and read in the news in the past few days, the UNWTO lists Israel as a destination in “Southern and Mediterranean Europe,” while Lebanon is considered part of “Africa and the Middle East.” Nevertheless, Israel saw a 30% increase and Lebanon (the best-performing destination in its region) a 49% increase in foreign tourist arrivals over the corresponding period last year.

In Asia and the Pacific, South Asia was “the most dynamic sub-region following the recovery of the destinations hit by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. Much of South-east Asia’s exceptional performance was also due in no small part to India’s sustained double-digit growth… Oceania (-1%) was the only sub-region to perform below average as Australia (-0.5%) and New Zealand (+1.4%) ended their high season with rather subdued results due to decreased long-haul arrivals, which seems to have been affected by higher fuel prices” (which, of course, is significant for us here in South Africa).

Growth was below average in the Americas, where North American arrivals were down 0.4% on last year - with Canada “struggling with the extraordinarily strong Canadian dollar” and down 4% on last year.

“By contrast, all other American sub-regions reported an above-average performance” - with Jamaica and Peru up 16%, Paraguay up 23% and Argentina up 12%.

But, according to the UNWTO, “Africa and the Middle East again led the way in terms of growth in 2006 as they did in 2005, with an estimated increase of around 11% each. In Africa, growth was stronger in Sub-Saharan Africa (+12%) with particularly remarkable results for Kenya (+14% between January and March) and the Seychelles (+11% Jan-May). In North Africa (+9%), results were somewhat mixed, with Tunisia recording an increase of 3% between January and April while Morocco posted an encouraging 17% growth for the same period.

“In the Middle East (+11%), Egypt’s 3% increase through May can be considered very positive overall. The country has suffered more than its fair share of difficulties in the past few years, but has proved to be well experienced at restoring confidence. Lebanon (+49%) and Bahrain (+30%) report the highest growth rates in the region so far this year, while the United Arab Emirate of Dubai (+7%) and Jordan (+5%) grew at healthy but more moderate rates.”

But, also in light of recent events, it’s interesting to note that the UNWTO remains up-beat about the future of global tourism: “looking back on tumultuous times, 2006’s trends so far confirm that disruptions, while definitely affecting destinations at a local level and over a specific period of time, do not alter global or regional traffic flows. Major factors contributing to the current growth trend include the favourable economic situation in key generating markets, the fact that consumer confidence remains high and, last but not least, the efforts of national administrations to develop and promote tourism.”

According to UNWTO Secretary General Francesco Frangialli, “international tourism has now entered a more stable phase of sustained demand without big peaks and troughs. Although the rate of growth is slowing gradually, international tourism is firmly on track to grow at a rate above the long-term average of 4% for the third year in a row now - barring unexpected events, of course.”

We’ll have to wait and see whether the situation in Israel and Lebanon escalates into one of those “unexpected events,” but, in June at least, Mr Frangialli wasn’t too concerned that escalating oil prices would put too much pressure on the industry: “experience and recent UNWTO research on the impact of higher energy prices show that the recent rise and volatility in oil prices have not noticeably influenced tourism demand.”

Good news for long-haul tourist arrivals to South Africa? It’s going to be interesting to watch and see…

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…Have a Great Tourism Week!

 

MARTIN HATCHUEL - BarefootWriter

p.s. I had a call this week from the folks in Springbok -

seems that, because of the good rains, the flowers have come out early this year.

And they’re out in abundance.

Time to get on the road for a Sho’t Left to Namaqualand!

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This Tourism Week is a personal e-letter and informed commentary on issues affecting South Africa’s tourism industry. If you don’t want to read it, please e-mail mailto:martin@barefootclients.co.za?subject=TTW%20UNSUBSCRIBE - but if you think it’s worth sharing, please forward this message to your friends and ask them to subscribe.

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PROUDLY BAREFOOT AND FULLY SOUTH AFRICAN

 

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